$ 134,050.32 - Bitcoin Price Forecast

This article aimed to explore the rallies in Bitcoin following the halving event the year prior. The idea is to find similarities and patterns between them to gain insights into 2021.

What was the distance of the first positive run?

Around 11 months

.08 - July 2010 -- June 10 26.42

What was the return?

330x

11 months after - peak

When Bitcoin first started it went on a a massive 330x return to subsequently crash down from 35$ to 2.54$.

The time frame was around 11 months, or just under a year.

July 2011 --> November 28, 2011

First Halving

After the first halving the price went from $12.27 to $1,000.39 - which was a return of 83x.

During this run, there were two dates with fast drastic price drops. In its entirety the run lasted 12 months.

November 28, 2011 - 365 days before the halving $2.54

November 28, 2012 --> Price at Having - $12.27

November 28, 2013 --> $1,000.39

Return

83x

Massive drops on run

March 6 and 11, 2013

Peak price: $49

Price decline: 33 percent

Early 2013 saw an extraordinary Bitcoin boom. By the beginning of March, Bitcoin prices were already double the 2012 high, and they rose another 50 percent over the next week. Then on March 6, the price collapsed, briefly falling to $34 before rising again to $45.

March 11 the price fell from $48 to $36.50 in a matter of minutes.

Once it became clear that the situation was under control, the currency rebounded to near its previous highs. These two crashes didn't have any noticeable impact on Bitcoin's upward price trajectory. Bitcoin prices would reach $60 on March 19 and end the month above $90.

April 10, 2013

Peak price: $266

Price decline: 61 percent

This decline left the currency's value where it started out the month prior. Ultimately the price continued to rise peaking at $1,000

November 28, 2013 --> $1,000.39

83x

83000%

The ratio of return for this run vs. second halving-

83/30 = 2.76

Second Halving

The second halving is the 2017 run that made bitcoin much more mainstream in the media and world wide awareness.

July 9th, 2015 --> 365 days before halving --->$269.68

July 9th, 2016 ---> $650 on day of second halving

July 9th, 2017 ---> 365 days after halving ---> $2,506

Peak 15th, December - $19,665

1 year after - 5x

From bottom to top the return was 30x.

The time frame was 17.3 months after the halving for the price to peak.

17.3 months - 30x

Third Halving -

The third halving during the Covid pandemic presented an interesting landscape for the value proposition of bitcoin as a store of value. The increases in price correlated with massive government stimulus and money printing.

365 days before - May 11 - 2019 Around $7,700

May 11 - 2020 - The price at the halving was $8,604

Taking the ratio of prior returns and assuming a linear decline in return based on size. From the halving price of $8,604 a return 15.58x would signify a price forecast to $134,050.

Price forecast -

$8,604 * 15.5

$ 134,050.32 - Price Forecast -

This price forecast is very similar to the JP Morgan price forecast of $146,000

Time Forecast -

Using the same logic forecasting out by a linear growth rate in the ratio of return, the price would dictate that the time from the bottom to the peak maybe farther out. I predict it similar to the 2017 run.

Time Forecasts From Bottom to Peak

11 months

12months - 1 months - 9% increase in time

17.3 months - 5.3 months - 30% increase in time

2021 --> ?

Applying Blockchain to the Advertising Industry $BAT

Advertising has the ability to transform daily life with messaging and creativity, create hit companies like Apple, and is practically impossible to avoid. Like so many other industries, technology has drastically altered the different ways to promote a brands story and message. This article explores the application of Blockchain to the advertising industry, then discusses the valuation of the BAT token and company.

Since the application of digital advertising - there is now an entire market focused on AdTech - bidding for and serving personalized digital ads. Tech firms are taking more and more market share, commanding an ability to continuously draw our attention on their platforms, Google, Facebook, Twitter, to name a few.

Media & Hi-Tech Industry - Advertising Revenue Numbers -

Technology Firms

Twitter - Over 1B in yearly revenue - all through advertising, are now considering a subscription plan in the future - 39B Market Cap

Facebook - 69.7B in revenue - (2019) - 98% of revenue based off advertising - 746 B Market Cap

Google - 134.8B in ad revenue in 2019 - out of 161B total

Linear TV

Fox News - 1.6B in ad revenue 2020 -

MSNB - 728.9M 2019 to 672M in 2020

CNN - 650M in 2019 to 619M in 2020

Publishers

Publishers have shifted to multi-modal models and focusing on subscription growth & advertising revenue. NYTs is a strong example of showcasing how to remain profitable as they shifted from print to digital, then from advertising to a combined subscription & advertising model.

Adverse Effects of Current Advertising Market -

Google and Facebook take 73% of all ad dollars and 99% of all growth.

Some estimate revenue has recently been down 66% in advertising at some publishers

Bots inflicted $7.2 billion in fraud last year.

Over 600 million phones and desktops run ad-blocking.

Publishers cannot seamlessly monetize value added services. 

Up to 50% of the average user’s mobile data is for ads and trackers, costing as much as $23 a month.

Ads use about 5 seconds of mobile load time on average.

Ads decrease phone battery life by as much as 21%.

Privacy is violated when large media sites host up to 70 trackers.

Malware (malvertisements, ransom-ware) is up 132% in one year.

Application of Blockchain - BAT Use Case

BAT states, "The marketplace for online advertising, once dominated by advertisers, publishers and users, has become overrun by “middleman” ad exchanges, audience segmentation, complicated behavioral and cross-device user tracking, and opaque cross-party sharing through data management platforms."

The Basic Attention Token is the first company to apply blockchain to the advertising industry.

Basic Attention Token attempts to improve the efficiency of digital advertising by creating a new token that can be exchanged between publishers, advertisers, and users. The solution is a decentralized, transparent digital ad exchange based on Blockchain.

The first component is Brave, a fast, open source, privacy-focused browser that blocks third party ads and trackers, and builds in a ledger system that measures user attention to reward publishers accordingly. Brave then introduced BAT (Basic Attention Token), a token for a decentralized ad exchange. It compensates the browser user for attention while protecting privacy. BAT connects advertisers, publishers, and users and is denominated by relevant user attention, while removing social and economic costs associated with existing ad networks, e.g., fraud, privacy violations, and malvertising.

The token can be used to obtain a variety of advertising and attention-based services on the BAT platform. The utility of the token is based on user attention, which simply means a person’s focused mental engagement.

BAT is a payment system that rewards and protects the user while giving better conversion to advertisers and higher yield to publishers. BAT and associated technologies as a future part of web standards, solving the important problem of monetizing publisher content while protecting user privacy.

BAT Key Features -

open source

transparent

decentralized

efficient

Valuation

BAT has an outstanding team, a solid business use case, and potential to grow consistently. There ICO was primarily given to the top creators of the firm. The valuation of the firm, around 300 million, is almost the same since the ICO. Going forward BAT will not see any short-term significant price increases, but steady growth. The dependencies on the price and market cap is correlated to the feasibility of the Brave browser.

A promising benefit to BAT is that they are located in San Francisco - and completely compliant with the U.S. laws. If scrutiny and new laws are incorporated onto the crypto market and other regulations on DEFI, BAT will benefit from this shift and grow as they are not defy related and affiliated to advertising and hi-tech - not fintech.

If your investments are mostly related to DEFI - looking at BAT maybe a solid hedge to those positions.

A 300 million market cap is high related to the newer cryptocurrency market. Comparing to some of the tech firms mentioned previously - (39 billion for Twitter off of 1 billion of revenue) Bat maybe undervalued if proven to work and grow effectively.

Some of the major risks are the usage of its browser. Google Chrome has dominated this market completely and it doesn't appear to be slowing down.

Many reviews have praised the Brave browser however -

"Brave is hands-down the fastest browser I've used this year on any operating system, for both mobile and desktop. Memory usage by the browser is far below most others, while website loading is far faster (Brave claims a 3-6x faster browsing experience than others on the market)" -CNet

If these reviews prove to be accurate and user adoption continue growing, the value of the token should see substantial gains.

Basic Attention Token price today is $0.194215 - It has a circulating supply of 1.5 Billion coins and a max supply of 1.5 Billion coins.

Exchanges -

Decoin

BAT/BTC

Coinbase Pro

BAT/USDC

Binance

BAT/USDT

Binance

BAT/BTC

Kraken

BAT Team

Etherisc Dip Token InsurTech Smart Contracts & Advancing Agriculture to Reduce Poverty

Advancing Agriculture to Reduce Poverty

Around 80% percent of the world’s poor live in rural areas, and many depend on farming for their livelihood. According to the World Bank, "Productivity growth in agriculture has the largest impact of any sector on poverty reduction — roughly twice that of manufacturing". Rising levels of productivity in China and other countries of East Asia has led to lower levels of poverty, but has been too low to have similar impacts in Africa and in South Asia, where the largest remaining pockets of extreme poverty are to be found. Despite increases in world agricultural productivity over the last few decades, global undernourishment remains significant and is on the rise, reaching 821 million people in 2017. Agriculture productivity is lower and is growing more slowly in poor countries, impeding their income convergence to advanced economies (World Bank).

In a recent World Bank study, Harvesting Prosperity: Technology and Productivity Growth in Agriculture argues that there are large potential gains to be made in productivity, and hence income. Growth in the agriculture sector is two to four times more effective in raising incomes among the poorest compared to other sectors. Agriculture is also crucial to economic growth: in 2018, it accounted for 4 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) and in some developing countries, it can account for more than 25% of GDP.

Business Use Case - Contract Farming & Insurance

At the University of Georgetown we studied the business side of an insurance company that was evaluating whether to provide weather insurance as protection for farmers. The insurance product was for weather protection, to cover the farmers in an unfortunate season or weather event.

The Main Challenges Insurance Providers Face With Policies for Rural Farms

• Economic viability of the business model

• Lack of understanding from farmers on how the policy operates

• Convincing farmers that the insurance is beneficial

• Consequences farmers face if crop fails

Farmers that fell upon a poor season, were often not able to continue working & feeding their families, which could sometimes lead to horrible consequences and even death from starvation.

The consequences of going through repeated bad seasons are terrible, but the insurance policies were often still not purchased.

Why Rural Farmers Don't Purchase Insurance

• Complexity - most small firms do not have the knowledge, capacity, or access to legal resources to take advantage of these provisions.

• Accessibility - to insurance products, financing, buyers, other market participants

• Demonstrating past experience and skills

Blockchain - Insurance Smart Contracts

Blockchain Smart Contracts simplify the insurance business model - decreasing the barrier to entry through utilizing a technical algorithm that will payout depending on what was guaranteed through business logic.

AON, an insurance firm with over 50,000 employees, partnered with Etherisc to provide Sri Lanka micro farmers access to protection products with a smart-contracts. Legal barriers, regulation, and all of the many issues with dealing with the government associations, local market characteristics, would decrease costs through a direct sales channel.

The economic profitability of the business model still needs further testing, but a first mover advantage is of critical importance in a fast moving disruptive market. Etherisc has consistently continued to build products, advance their cause, and maintain consistency since 2017.

Pricing and Valuation

Etherisc (Dip) token has recently grown, even while the market decreased over the past few months. A main impediment are the exchanges and accessibility to purchase. Uniswap is the main platform that gives it global access to purchase. Apart from Uniswap, Idex also lists the token per Coin Guecko. New exchange listings outside of Uniswap would lead to a potential massive gain increase. Part of the difficulty with being placed on other exchanges is that they deal with legal constraints due to the nature of the highly regulated insurance markets and international laws.

At an estimated market cap around 20 million - Etherisc is a firm to watch for 2020 - 2021. Depending on which exchanges they list on going forward, the valuation could see itself in the 200 M to 250 M range. Nexus Mutual - a recently launched token this summer, has a market cap of over 200 million - already ranked #65 by Market Cap.

Partnerships

Partnerships could be a substantial way forward for Etherisc to impact economic development. Partnering with global organizations such as the IMF, World Bank, or other corporate entities besides AON - could pave a strong path forward to helping solidify the economical feasibility of providing these insurance contracts to developing regions.

Products -

Hurricane Protection

Designed for low-income individuals and small business owners. Instant payouts are triggered by wind speed registered by weather-stations within 30 mile radius from insured’s permanent location.

Crypto Wallet Insurance

Protection against risk of theft and attacks of hackers on wallet smart contracts. Target coverage - up to $1M.

Flight Delay Insurance

First decentralized insurance. Payouts are automatic and almost instant. Now fully licensed.

Crop Insurance

Select your crop and the location of your field. Automated payouts are triggered by drought or flood events reported by government agencies.

Social Insurance

Affordable, accessible protection against risk of death or heavy illness of a community member. Immediate emergency payment which helps to get through critical times.

Collateral Protection for Crypto-backed Loans

Policy pays up to 100% of the issued loan amount if value of collateral provided by the borrower (i.e. ETH, or tokenized car) drops by 90% or more.

Sources

https://www.coindesk.com/business-is-booming-for-defi-insurer-nexus-mutual-ahead-of-ethereum-2-0

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2019/07/01/531026.htm

Insurance for agricultural entities in developing nations is very tricky - Recently Etherisc partners with with AON in Sri Lanka.

https://ir.aon.com/about-aon/investor-relations/investor-news/news-release-details/2019/Aon-Oxfam-and-Etherisc-launch-first-blockchain-based-agricultural-insurance-policies-for-smallholder-farmers-in-Sri-Lanka/default.aspx

https://etherisc.com/

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2019/07/01/531026.htm

https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2019/03/Rural-poverty-EGM_IFAD-overview.pdf

https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/overview

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/10/agriculture-africa-asia-poverty-innovation/

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/1/259